PROTOCOL ARCHITECTURE
Weather Alpha on Polymarket
Aeterna Prediction EngineAeterna Engine V8.1
Dual mean+variance model outputs temperature distributions. Aeterna Engine V8.1 CDF maps to per-bracket probabilities with Platt calibration.
Edge Detection7% threshold
Model probabilities compared against normalized market prices. Kelly criterion sizes positions.
10 Global Markets24/7 coverage
NYC, Chicago, Miami, Seattle, London, Paris, Ankara, Tel Aviv, Seoul, Buenos Aires.
Autonomous Execution30min cycles
Auto-execute trades on Polymarket via CLOB API. BUY YES and BUY NO with fee handling.
VERIFIED BACKTEST
Performance Metrics
Normalized · Flat $1K/day · 2% fee · 60 day sample
Backtest ROI60 days · normalized
Flat $1,000/day, normalized prices, 2% Polymarket fee deducted. 53 of 60 days profitable.
Win Rate2,025 trades
64.3% overall. BUY YES: 29% win rate, +266% ROI. BUY NO: 89% win rate, +71% ROI.
Risk ManagementHalf-Kelly
Kelly multiplier 0.50, max fraction 20%, minimum 10% model probability.
Data PipelineEvery 30min
Continuous collection of Polymarket prices and Open-Meteo ensemble forecasts.
ACTIVE MARKETS
Global Weather Stations
TECHNICAL STACK
VIEW ALL →